PCAG Blog

City of Port Alberni Market Statistics

The average price over the past year has remained generally stable with normal seasonal fluctuations. The average price in March 2009 was $187,106 compared to $191,112 in March 2010, virtually unchanged.

Inventory levels within the City of Port Alberni remain high but stable while sales volumes have been stable in the 10 to 15 sales per month range.

Sales activity trended higher during the first half of 2009 which served to shore up the overall downward trend in sale prices since the beginning of 2008.

Inventory levels remain moderately high but stable.

Sales volumes in the local market have rebounded as expected with the spring house hunting season well underway. The month of March saw 18 transactions take place within the City of Port Alberni boundaries. The average sale price was $187,106.

Sales activity for the month of March is still down 50% from the previous year when the average price was $209,242. Many more sellers are chasing fewer buyers in a market where listing inventory is up 36% from the same time last year.

A question we're frequently asked is "what is the market value of my home relative to my assessment?". The answer to the question is always "it depends".

The BC Assessment Authority (BCAA) primarily uses mass appraisal techniques to determine the market value of residential properties in BC. Mass Appraisal is the use of very sophisticated computer modeling to determine the market value of properties for tax purposes.

One check that the BCAA will use to gauge the accuracy of their models is by the comparison of actual sale transactions in the market with their systems' estimate of market value. It is this ratio that helps to tell them if they are on the right track. Using the assessed value to determine the current market value of an individual property for selling or buying purposes can have problems. Lets look further.

If there are two properties that have recently sold for $200,000. The first property has an assessed value of $185,000 and the second has an assessed value of $215,000. Taken together, the two assessments average $200,000 and the average of the sale prices is also $200,000, obviously the model is very close to the average actual sale price and is well within limits acceptable for assessed values. The model would be considered fairly accurate for tax purposes but when each property is considered individually their actual sale price is different from the assessed value by $15,000.

This is an oversimplification, of course, but it illustrates a fundamental problem with putting too much weight on your assessment for the value of a single property.

There are other problems that arise as well. Upgrades to a property that didn't require a building permit may not be reflected in the assessment. The reverse can true if the property is in very poor condition.

Also, the effective date of appraisal for assessed values and tax purposes is as of July 1 the previous year. So assessed values are always behind the market. If the market is changing rapidly there can be a significant difference.

In our experience we have noticed that the more unusual the property the more variation there can be in the sale price to assessment ratio.

Having said the above, here at PCAG we have done some of our own analysis in the current market. Take a look...

The above graph shows the relationship of assessed values to sale prices since July of 2008 and the trend over the past nine months. Last summer, sale prices were above assessed values by about 10%. Currently, sale prices are about 10% below assessed values.

Whether buying, selling or lending, now more than ever, it's critical to know current market value. An independent and professionally prepared real estate appraisal is the best way to gain that insight.

Statistics are in for the month of February and things are not looking good for the local real estate market. The average price for the City of Port Alberni using a three month rolling average has declined to $185,000. The lowest its been since August of 2006 and almost a $13,000 drop from the previous month.

The demand side of the equation continues to be a factor as the number of transactions in the market has declined considerably. During the month of February there were 11 sales reported for the area on the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service, excluding rural areas, eight of these were within the City of Port Alberni.

There has been 19 cumulative sales since the beginning of January compared to 39 the previous year, a little over 51% decline in volume year over year.

On the supply side, there were 201 active listings compared to 139 the same time last year, an increase in available inventory of almost 45%.

Economic uncertainty, tighter lending criteria and Buyers taking a wait and see attitude continues to fuel the dynamics of this market. With the Spring home buying season about to begin in earnest we are looking for a seasonal up-tick in market activity. How that will affect short term price trends remains to be seen. Stay tuned...

Whether buying, selling or lending, now more than ever, it's critical to know current market value. An independent and professionally prepared real estate appraisal is the best way to gain that insight.

Monthly market statistics published by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) for this area includes, not only Port Alberni but, Tofino, Ucluelet and Bamfield. Transactions in these smaller sub-markets on the west coast tend to be fewer and much higher due to a larger component of high value ocean front and view properties. One or two transactions in these smaller sub-markets can significantly skew the overall picture for the Port Alberni market.

Here at PCAG Property Advisors Inc., we compile and analyze our own market statistics based on data from VIREB that includes transactions within the City of Port Alberni only and excludes waterfront and manufactured homes. This gives us a much clearer picture of actual trends in the Port Alberni market on its own.

According to our statistics, the average price slipped another 2.9% in December to $197,000. This represent an overall 11% drop in the average price year over year.

Inventory levels remained steady at 220 active listings from the previous month but up 40% from the previous year. Sales volume also remained steady from the previous month at 8 sales but this is still down significantly from the previous year at 17 sales, or a 53% decline.

Since 2002 a large majority of the buyers for this area's real estate has come from elsewhere. Over the past two years, however, there has been a noticeable downward trend in out of the area buyer demand. The following chart, using data taken from the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board’s Purchaser Profile surveys, which includes the Alberni Valley, Ucluelet and Tofino, illustrates this trend. Although specific data for Tofino and Ucluelet were not available, the indicated trend in these sub-markets more heavily reliant on out of area buyers would be even more pronounced.

Inside the municipal boundaries of the City of Port Alberni sales volumes dropped significantly to 6 transactions, the lowest monthly sales volume since January 2003. In the meantime properties actively listed for sale in the month of November has trended higher to 225 listings on the Vancouver Island Multiple Listing Service compared to 158 the previous year.

Absorption rates (the number of months to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current sales volume) has been trending higher to 30 months up from 11 months the previous year.

This development signifies a significant shift in the supply and demand dynamics of the Port Alberni real estate market.

As a result of slower sales and growing inventory levels the average selling price (based on a 3 month rolling average) has been trending lower, now at $202,000 down from the peak of the market a year earlier at $218,000, a decline of approximately 7.5% year over year.

Homeowners need an appraisal for a variety of reasons, including a mortgage refinance, pre-listing services, income tax or estate planning purposes. Or, maybe you're just concerned about the equity in your home.

When you order a market value appraisal from us, you can be rest assured that you will get the best in professional, independent, unbiased and technically advanced service in the Alberni Valley and the central west coast of Vancouver Island.